Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies by unknow

Author:unknow
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Published: 2018-07-03T00:00:00+00:00

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Combining Probabilistic Seismicity Models with Precursory Information

Peter Shebalin

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

ABSTRACT

Probabilistic earthquake seismicity models provide just very low local expected rates of large earthquakes. In operational earthquake forecasting this makes it difficult to take preventive measures. Precursory phenomena detected in different geophysical fields may signal periods of significant rise of earthquake probabilities, but usually they may not be expressed in terms of probabilities. However, probabilistic features of the precursory phenomena are expressed in the statistics of their case histories. A differential probability gain approach provides a way of converting precursory phenomena into a probabilistic form and to combine them with seismicity models. Here the approach is described for several examples showing the possibility for obtaining from the resulting models high probabilities of expected earthquakes. The approach is applicable to any precursory phenomena, not only the seismicity patterns considered here.

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